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     2nd QTR 2010 Sales

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      Homegrown issues (foreclosures, home orders, Fed comments) weigh on Markets.


 
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On the other hand, foreclosures in the US were not very good. They rose in 75% of the cities, but there are signs that could be bottoming because filings are substantially lower than the actual foreclosures.

It is like permits for home building: If they are high, you can anticipate more build down the road; if they are low, you can anticipate less. Less filings in some of the hardest-hit areas is an indication that perhaps the cycle has run its course in those areas, and we may finally see foreclosures start to slow down.

The all-important consideration in this is when housing prices can find their bottom. If the market has finally rung out the excess  those who cannot afford their homes then perhaps prices can bottom and we can start to see appreciation once more. That would be a big shot in the arm for the economy. You have to wonder, though.

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May Existing Home Sales Drop 2.2% Disappoints. Maybe the Housing Market has Bottomed


The verdict as to the effectiveness of the buyer's credit: it isn't going to stop the housing market's fall. All the credits did was push people to buy to take advantage of the credit. If everything else was picking up it might have worked. As it is, now that the credit is gone, buyers are gone thanks to the credit's expiration pushing sales forward.

The housing market will likely recover some in the next few months as the 'sales forward' effect will diminish. Still there won't be a big rush back; the economy is still weak and the action of the housing market after the credit's expiration indicates that. If Congress stays out of it the housing market can contract further and perhaps find a real market bottom. The credits didn't do that simply because the housing market was too hot for too long, fostered by interest rates that were too low for too long combined with a Congress and a couple of Presidents too eager to get people into houses they could not afford as if that were some kind of measure of our prosperity. Indeed, with ECRI showing continued economic slowing, there is not much to keep prices higher.

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May Housing Starts Stink Pointing to Another Housing Slump


At 593K and -10% month over month, starts totally missed the 655K expected.  With builder sentiment running up and down like the temperature of a woman having hot flashes, it is no wonder housing starts are volatile. 

The expiration of the tax credit is revealing the continued weakness in the sector.  It is cyclical, it was propped up too long by low rates and fancy pants financing, and when it started to crash the government tried to prop it up again.  The renewed plunge in starts shows that it was all stimulus; the housing market has not corrected enough to rebound on its own. 

Markets that are propped up too long or held down too long have to finish their cycle and clear out the pipes to start another run.  Otherwise they stagnate just as the overall economy did in the Great Depression and in the 1970's when we tried throwing money at them to shorten the pain.  All that did was lengthen the malaise. 

Another major economic crisis and slowdown, and we have not learned a thing.  That is why many smart economists are worried about another housing and indeed economic dip.  ECRI continues to point to slowing into late summer and the fall.  If you could spend your way to prosperity then Europe would be a bastion of economic prosperity and wealth.  To the contrary, it has shown us another example of how government CANNOT SPEND its way to prosperity. 

Indeed, it has spent itself to the verge of collapse with debt to GDP ratios well over 100%.  Oh, and we are on that road right now, just a few years removed.  With the President using the Gulf oil spill to shill for his cap and trade agenda and even more spending (he even talked about the 'costs' last night in very vague terms), we are planning even more spending and even a more rapid lurch toward European financial disaster.

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