-2.0% versus 0.4% last week. That brings mortgage apps down to mid-2012
levels. The new worry for the housing market is all of those who bought as
investments at the trough and helped drive prices back up might want to
start unloading them. But not to worry; the experts are saying these
groups won't sell this year. How comforting to know there is a big wad of
speculation houses out there ready to hit the market. But it is the smart
money that bought and that tends to be patient money and will wait until
the market is hot. They will wait until it is more profitable to sell than
rent. Right now, renting is more lucrative and until that changes they
will hold onto these properties.
_____________________________ 2nd Quarter Sales-2014*
The Housing Market
the attention focused on the US housing market, some interesting facts
about housing markets elsewhere came out. The news could be good, it could
be bad. You make the call.
US: The 1.9% decline was the sharpest in 15 months, but off of 4 year
highs. You cannot stay at the peak all the time. Of course the revision
to August made the number an expectations beat. The beauty of low
The problem for the US market is affordability. Yes rates remain
historically low and have leveled out from the rapid rise. That helps for
future sales as it is the RATE of change that is the killer.
Unfortunately, rates remain elevated at the same time that income growth
(and I reluctantly say growth) is easily outmatched by price increases.
UK: Home prices in London jumped 10% month over month in October. 10%
appreciation in a month. Oh surely the recovery is here. But as pointed
out regarding the US economy versus the stock market over the weekend, the
'recovery' does not justify the price. The not so missing link that
underlies all markets: the excessive, massively excessive, liquidity is the
x-factor. It has single-handedly provided whatever mediocre growth
economies have experienced, and now it is threatening to unleash pretty
hideous inflation, at least as the London housing prices suggest. Kind of
an 'uh oh' moment.
China: But there is a worse case.
Bloomberg reports Shanghai average housing costs rose 12% over last week.
That's pricey. While London might be having an 'uh oh' moment,
Shanghai and China have to be thinking more of along the lines of an 'oh
crap' gut check.
1st Quarter Sales-
3rd Quarter Sales-2014*
4th Quarter Sales-2014*
April 1, 2014
July 1, 2014
Oct 1, 2014
Back to New Listings/Monthly & QTR Sales-
Final Monthly Sales-2013
Final Monthly Sales-2012
Final Monthly Sales-2011
Final Monthly Sales-2010
Final Monthly Sales-2009
Final Monthly Sales-
Final Monthly Sales-2007
Final Monthly Sales-2006
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