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Mortgages: -2.0% versus 0.4% last week.  That brings mortgage apps down to mid-2012 levels.  The new worry for the housing market is all of those who bought as investments at the trough and helped drive prices back up might want to start unloading them.  But not to worry; the experts are saying these groups won't sell this year.  How comforting to know there is a big wad of speculation houses out there ready to hit the market.  But it is the smart money that bought and that tends to be patient money and will wait until the market is hot.  They will wait until it is more profitable to sell than rent.  Right now, renting is more lucrative and until that changes they will hold onto these properties.


The Housing Market

While the attention focused on the US housing market, some interesting facts about housing markets elsewhere came out. The news could be good, it could be bad.  You make the call.

US:  The 1.9% decline was the sharpest in 15 months, but off of 4 year highs.  You cannot stay at the peak all the time. Of course the revision to August made the number an expectations beat.  The beauty of low expectations. 

The problem for the US market is affordability.  Yes rates remain historically low and have leveled out from the rapid rise.  That helps for future sales as it is the RATE of change that is the killer.  Unfortunately, rates remain elevated at the same time that income growth (and I reluctantly say growth) is easily outmatched by price increases.

  Home prices in London jumped 10% month over month in October.  10% appreciation in a month.  Oh surely the recovery is here.  But as pointed out regarding the US economy versus the stock market over the weekend, the 'recovery' does not justify the price.  The not so missing link that underlies all markets: the excessive, massively excessive, liquidity is the x-factor.  It has single-handedly provided whatever mediocre growth economies have experienced, and now it is threatening to unleash pretty hideous inflation, at least as the London housing prices suggest.  Kind of an 'uh oh' moment.

But there is a worse case.  Bloomberg reports Shanghai average housing costs rose 12% over last week.  That's pricey.  While London might be having an 'uh oh' moment, Shanghai and China have to be thinking more of along the lines of an 'oh crap' gut check.


Quarterly Sales - 2014

  1st Quarter Sales-2014

   2nd Quarter Sales-2014*

     3rd Quarter Sales-2014*  

   4th Quarter Sales-2014*

*Available April 1, 2014
*Available July 1, 2014
*Available Oct 1, 2014

Back to New Listings/Monthly & QTR Sales- 2014

Final Monthly Sales-2013

Final Monthly Sales-2012

Final Monthly Sales-2011

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Final Monthly Sales- 2008

Final Monthly Sales-2007

Final Monthly Sales-2006

 * Commentary supplied by Investment House & Vinther Properties

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